Testing public policy at the frontier: the effect of the $15 minimum wage on public safety in Seattle

Research In 2017, Seattle, Washington, became the first city in the United States to increase its minimum wage to $15 per hour, more than double the federal minimum wage. Not only was a $15 minimum wage unprecedented, but the increase was also extremely rapid, with the minimum wage rising by nearly...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Mitre-Becerril, David (Author)
Contributors: Chalfin, Aaron
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2021
In: Criminology & public policy
Year: 2021, Volume: 20, Issue: 2, Pages: 291-328
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
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Keywords:
Crime
Minimum Wage
Unemployment
synthetic control method

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520 |a Research In 2017, Seattle, Washington, became the first city in the United States to increase its minimum wage to $15 per hour, more than double the federal minimum wage. Not only was a $15 minimum wage unprecedented, but the increase was also extremely rapid, with the minimum wage rising by nearly 60% in just 2 years. Using a synthetic differences-in-differences estimator, we consider the impact of Seattle's landmark minimum wage legislation on public safety. Although there is speculative evidence for an increase in commercial burglaries, we find little evidence that Seattle experienced a change in its aggregate rate of violent or property offending relative to other U.S. cities. To better understand the mechanisms underlying our findings, we investigate the impacts of the local wage law on employment and earnings for Seattle's low-skilled labor market. We detect no meaningful adverse effects on the employment rates of low-wage workers. Policy Implications Our results suggest that Seattle increased its minimum wage without compromising public safety. Seattle's experience shows that increasing wages can be a tool for increasing the opportunity cost of crime without reducing employment levels. To the extent that other cities enact higher minimum wages to a level that generates unemployment among low-skilled workers, public safety changes could be considerably different. 
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