Next generation assessment technology: the potential and pitfalls of integrating individual and community risk assessment

The recent inclusion of community-level risk variables in (some) fourth generation risk assessment instruments, ostensibly to make more accurate individual-level predictions of the likelihood of reoffending among the populations of probationers and parolees under community supervision, is examined i...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Byrne, James M. 1954- (Author)
Contributors: Pattavina, April
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2017
In: Probation journal
Year: 2017, Volume: 64, Issue: 3, Pages: 242-255
Online Access: Volltext (Resolving-System)
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Keywords:
Community safety
Corrections
Evidence-based practice
Probation
Recidivism
Risk assessment

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520 |a The recent inclusion of community-level risk variables in (some) fourth generation risk assessment instruments, ostensibly to make more accurate individual-level predictions of the likelihood of reoffending among the populations of probationers and parolees under community supervision, is examined in the following review. This development raises a thorny issue: what if the price of improved predictive accuracy is increased gender, race, or class-based disparity? Our review underscores the problems (conceptualization and measurement related) inherent in combining individual risk variables with community-level risk variables in order to assess an offender’s risk for re-offending during a specified follow-up period. In recognition of the likely disparity that will result from the conflation of neighborhood risk into individual risk assessments, we suggest an alternative: conduct a separate neighborhood risk assessment that can be used to simultaneously develop (1) a community-based treatment plan for individual offenders and (2) a resource development plan identifying and addressing service shortfalls and other risk factors in the neighborhoods where offenders reside. 
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