RT Article
T1 Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence
JF Criminal justice policy review
VO 30
IS 9
SP 1408
OP 1430
A1 Clark-Moorman, Kyleigh
A2 McGarrell, Edmund F. 1956-
A2 Rydberg, Jason
LA English
YR 2019
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1727148320
AB We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6% to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations.
K1 Focused deterrence
K1 Pulling levers intervention
K1 Quasi-experimental design
K1 Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS)
DO 10.1177/0887403418812999