Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence
We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38...
| Authors: | ; ; |
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| In: |
Criminal justice policy review
Year: 2019, Volume: 30, Issue: 9, Pages: 1408-1430 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (Resolving-System) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
| Summary: | We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6% to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations. |
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| ISSN: | 1552-3586 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0887403418812999 |