RT Article
T1 The Murder Mystery: Police Effectiveness and Homicide
JF Journal of quantitative criminology
VO 33
IS 4
SP 859
OP 886
A1 Spelman, William
LA English
YR 2017
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1688769390
AB Objective: Previous aggregate analyses of the effect of police on crime show that increases in police staffing are especially effective at preventing homicide. This conflicts with evidence that suggests standard police methods should be more effective at preventing robbery, auto theft, and other property crimes. My objective is to reconcile the two. Methods: Regression of crime rates on uniformed police staffing and other economic and demographic covariates, for a panel of 59 US cities for the period 1970-2013. Results: Lagged crime rates are strong and statistically significant predictors of both policing staffing and crime rates, particularly homicide. When lags are included in the specification, the apparent effect of police on homicide drops by more than 70 %; there is little change in the effect of police on other crimes. Findings are robust with respect to specification and method. Conclusions: Previous studies omitted lags and overstated the effectiveness of police on homicide. Because murder accounts for almost 40 % of all costs of crime in US cities, it is no longer clear whether increasing police force size is a cost-effective way to cut crime. Improving police tactics is more likely to work and less expensive.
K1 Crime
K1 Homicide
K1 Offenses against property
K1 Police
K1 Robbery
K1 Prevention
K1 United States
K1 Deterrence
K1 Omitted Variables
K1 sensitivity analysis
DO 10.1007/s10940-016-9315-8