RT Article
T1 Estimating risks of arrest and criminal populations: regression adjustments to capture–recapture models
JF Crime & delinquency
VO 65
IS 13
SP 1767
OP 1797
A1 Bouchard, Martin
A2 Morselli, Carlo
A2 Macdonald, Mitch
LA English
YR 2019
UL https://krimdok.uni-tuebingen.de/Record/1677599332
AB The size of criminal populations is unknown, and policy decisions are typically based only on the number of offenses and offenders that come to the attention of the criminal justice system. However, the size of criminal populations may follow different trends than what is observed in official data. We use a regression-adjusted capture–recapture model to estimate the number of people at risk of arrest for offenses involving amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) from arrests and rearrests occurring in Quebec, Canada, controlling for year of first arrest, age, and gender. The 4,989 individuals arrested were the visible part of an estimated 42,541 [36,936, 48,145] individuals otherwise at risk of arrest (12%). Additional results show that trends in criminal populations and risks of arrest vary across offense type and drug classifications.
K1 Capture–recapture methods
K1 Size of criminal populations
K1 Risks of arrest
K1 Drugs
K1 Amphetamines
DO 10.1177/0011128718807156