The Crime Drop in America: an Exploration of Some Recent Crime Trends

Between 1993 and 2000 the United States experienced a sharp decline of over 40% in murder and robbery rates. There has been much speculation about the factors that contributed to that decline. In this paper, we examine the effects of incarceration, changing demographic composition, policing and cont...

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Autor principal: Blumstein, Alfred (Autor)
Tipo de documento: Print Artículo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2006
En: Journal of Scandinavian studies in criminology and crime prevention
Año: 2006, Volumen: 7, Páginas: 17-35
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520 |a Between 1993 and 2000 the United States experienced a sharp decline of over 40% in murder and robbery rates. There has been much speculation about the factors that contributed to that decline. In this paper, we examine the effects of incarceration, changing demographic composition, policing and control of guns, and the changing nature of markets selling crack cocaine. We find two major factors contributing to the drop. The first and major effect was the undoing of the rapid rise in violence between 1985 and 1993, a rise that was attributable largely to the recruitment of young people into the crack markets as replacements for those sent to prison. That entire rise was attributable to young people with handguns. Between 1993 and 2000, there was a significant drop in the demand for crack by new users, and so the young people were no longer needed, but they could be absorbed in the robust economy. The second factor that contributed to the decline was a continuation of the reduction in violence by people aged 30 and above, probably due to an incapacitation effect 
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