Forecasting recorded property crime using a time-series econometric model

This paper uses a time-series econometric model, previously published by Pyle and Deadman (1994), in order to forecast levels of recorded property crime for the years 1992-96 inclusive. The model forecasts well for the period 1992-95 inclusive, in that it picks up the turning points in the series fo...

Full description

Saved in:  
Bibliographic Details
Authors: Deadman, Derek F. (Author) ; Pyle, David (Author)
Format: Print Article
Language:English
Published: 1997
In: The British journal of criminology
Year: 1997, Volume: 37, Issue: 3, Pages: 437-445
Journals Online & Print:
Drawer...
Availability in Tübingen:Present in Tübingen.
IFK: In: Z 7
Check availability: HBZ Gateway
Keywords:

MARC

LEADER 00000caa a22000002 4500
001 1640120645
003 DE-627
005 20220608131158.0
007 tu
008 160223s1997 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c
035 |a (DE-627)1640120645 
035 |a (DE-576)456056491 
035 |a (DE-599)BSZ456056491 
040 |a DE-627  |b ger  |c DE-627  |e rakwb 
041 |a eng 
100 1 |a Deadman, Derek F.  |0 (DE-627)1239182597  |0 (DE-576)169182592  |4 aut 
109 |a Deadman, Derek F.  |a Deadman, D. F.  |a Deadman, Derek 
245 1 0 |a Forecasting recorded property crime using a time-series econometric model  |c Derek Deadman, David Pyle 
264 1 |c 1997 
336 |a Text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen  |b n  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a Band  |b nc  |2 rdacarrier 
520 |a This paper uses a time-series econometric model, previously published by Pyle and Deadman (1994), in order to forecast levels of recorded property crime for the years 1992-96 inclusive. The model forecasts well for the period 1992-95 inclusive, in that it picks up the turning points in the series for recorded theft (in 1992) and recorded burglary (in 1993) and predicts the continuing increase in recorded offences of robbery. The model forecasts a further fall in the level of recorded theft in 1996, if GDP grows at the rate of 2.1 per cent predicted by the NIESR for that year. However, the model predicts that the fall in the number of recorded offences of burglary may come to an end in 1996 and that offences of burglary may even increase slightly. The number of recorded offences of robbery is predicted to continue to increase. A method of separating the effects upon recorded crime of economic changes from criminal justice changes is suggested 
700 1 |a Pyle, David  |4 aut 
773 0 8 |i In  |t The British journal of criminology  |d Oxford : Univ. Press, 1960  |g 37(1997), 3, Seite 437-445  |w (DE-627)129851361  |w (DE-600)280389-6  |w (DE-576)015150712  |x 0007-0955  |7 nnns 
773 1 8 |g volume:37  |g year:1997  |g number:3  |g pages:437-445 
935 |a mkri 
951 |a AR 
ELC |b 1 
LOK |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 
LOK |0 001 3301460887 
LOK |0 003 DE-627 
LOK |0 004 1640120645 
LOK |0 005 20160223101154 
LOK |0 008 160208||||||||||||||||ger||||||| 
LOK |0 040   |a DE-21-110  |c DE-627  |d DE-21-110 
LOK |0 689   |a s  |a Kriminalitätsprognose 
LOK |0 689   |a s  |a Diebstahl 
LOK |0 689   |a s  |a Raub 
LOK |0 852   |a DE-21-110 
LOK |0 852 1  |c In: Z 7  |m p  |9 00 
LOK |0 935   |a k110 
LOK |0 938   |k p 
ORI |a SA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw 
SIG |a IFK: In: Z 7