Forecasting recorded property crime using a time-series econometric model
This paper uses a time-series econometric model, previously published by Pyle and Deadman (1994), in order to forecast levels of recorded property crime for the years 1992-96 inclusive. The model forecasts well for the period 1992-95 inclusive, in that it picks up the turning points in the series fo...
| Authors: | ; |
|---|---|
| Format: | Print Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
1997
|
| In: |
The British journal of criminology
Year: 1997, Volume: 37, Issue: 3, Pages: 437-445 |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
|
| Availability in Tübingen: | Present in Tübingen. IFK: In: Z 7 |
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000caa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1640120645 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20220608131158.0 | ||
| 007 | tu | ||
| 008 | 160223s1997 xx ||||| 00| ||eng c | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1640120645 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-576)456056491 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BSZ456056491 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Deadman, Derek F. |0 (DE-627)1239182597 |0 (DE-576)169182592 |4 aut | |
| 109 | |a Deadman, Derek F. |a Deadman, D. F. |a Deadman, Derek | ||
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting recorded property crime using a time-series econometric model |c Derek Deadman, David Pyle |
| 264 | 1 | |c 1997 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ohne Hilfsmittel zu benutzen |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Band |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a This paper uses a time-series econometric model, previously published by Pyle and Deadman (1994), in order to forecast levels of recorded property crime for the years 1992-96 inclusive. The model forecasts well for the period 1992-95 inclusive, in that it picks up the turning points in the series for recorded theft (in 1992) and recorded burglary (in 1993) and predicts the continuing increase in recorded offences of robbery. The model forecasts a further fall in the level of recorded theft in 1996, if GDP grows at the rate of 2.1 per cent predicted by the NIESR for that year. However, the model predicts that the fall in the number of recorded offences of burglary may come to an end in 1996 and that offences of burglary may even increase slightly. The number of recorded offences of robbery is predicted to continue to increase. A method of separating the effects upon recorded crime of economic changes from criminal justice changes is suggested | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Pyle, David |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i In |t The British journal of criminology |d Oxford : Univ. Press, 1960 |g 37(1997), 3, Seite 437-445 |w (DE-627)129851361 |w (DE-600)280389-6 |w (DE-576)015150712 |x 0007-0955 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:37 |g year:1997 |g number:3 |g pages:437-445 |
| 935 | |a mkri | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| ELC | |b 1 | ||
| LOK | |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 | ||
| LOK | |0 001 3301460887 | ||
| LOK | |0 003 DE-627 | ||
| LOK | |0 004 1640120645 | ||
| LOK | |0 005 20160223101154 | ||
| LOK | |0 008 160208||||||||||||||||ger||||||| | ||
| LOK | |0 040 |a DE-21-110 |c DE-627 |d DE-21-110 | ||
| LOK | |0 689 |a s |a Kriminalitätsprognose | ||
| LOK | |0 689 |a s |a Diebstahl | ||
| LOK | |0 689 |a s |a Raub | ||
| LOK | |0 852 |a DE-21-110 | ||
| LOK | |0 852 1 |c In: Z 7 |m p |9 00 | ||
| LOK | |0 935 |a k110 | ||
| LOK | |0 938 |k p | ||
| ORI | |a SA-MARC-krimdoka001.raw | ||
| SIG | |a IFK: In: Z 7 | ||