Predicting sentencing outcomes with centrality measures

Despite their importance for stakeholders in the criminal justice system, few methods have been developed for determining which criminal behavior variables will produce accurate sentence predictions. Some approaches found in the literature resort to techniques based on indirect variables, but not on...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Masías Hinojosa, Víctor Hugo 1979- (Author)
Contributors: Morselli, Carlo (Other) ; Crespo, Fernando (Other) ; Laengle, Sigifredo (Other)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2013
In:In: Security Informatics 2(2013), 4, Seite 1-9
Online Access: Volltext (kostenfrei)
Check availability: HBZ Gateway
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520 |a Despite their importance for stakeholders in the criminal justice system, few methods have been developed for determining which criminal behavior variables will produce accurate sentence predictions. Some approaches found in the literature resort to techniques based on indirect variables, but not on the social network behavior with exception of the work of Baker and Faulkner [ASR 58: 837–860, 1993]. Using information on the Caviar Network narcotics trafficking group as a real-world case, we attempt to explain sentencing outcomes employing the social network indicators. Specifically, we report the ability of centrality measures to predict a) the verdict (innocent or guilty) and b) the sentence length in years. We show that while the set of indicators described by Baker and Faulkner yields good predictions, introduction of the additional centrality measures generates better predictions. Some ideas for orienting future research on further improvements to sentencing outcome prediction 
650 4 |a Kriminologie 
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650 4 |a Strafverfolgung 
650 4 |a Justiz 
650 4 |a Netzwerkanalyse 
650 4 |a Criminology 
650 4 |a Sentencing outcomes 
650 4 |a Social Networks 
700 1 |a Morselli, Carlo  |4 oth 
700 1 |a Crespo, Fernando  |4 oth 
700 1 |a Laengle, Sigifredo  |4 oth 
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