Predictive validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: two and 5-Year violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of Dutch forensic psychiatric patients
This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlan...
| Authors: | ; ; |
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2018
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| In: |
International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology
Year: 2018, Volume: 62, Issue: 8, Pages: 2259-2270 |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (Resolving-System) |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Keywords: |
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Predictive validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool |b two and 5-Year violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of Dutch forensic psychiatric patients |c Stefan Bogaerts, Marinus Spreen, Paul ter Horst [und ein weiterer] |
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| 520 | |a This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment. | ||
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