Can we downsize our prisons and jails without compromising public safety?

Our study represents the first effort to evaluate systematically Proposition 47's (Prop 47's) impact on California's crime rates. With a state‐level panel containing violent and property offenses from 1970 through 2015, we employ a synthetic control group design to approximate Califor...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Bartos, Bradley (Author) ; Kubrin, Charis Elizabeth (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2018
In: Criminology & public policy
Year: 2018, Volume: 17, Issue: 3, Pages: 693-715
Online Access: Presumably Free Access
Volltext (Verlag)
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Keywords:
Criminal justice reform
Crime
Prison downsizing
Decarceration
California
Description
Summary:Our study represents the first effort to evaluate systematically Proposition 47's (Prop 47's) impact on California's crime rates. With a state‐level panel containing violent and property offenses from 1970 through 2015, we employ a synthetic control group design to approximate California's crime rates had Prop 47 not been enacted. Our findings suggest that Prop 47 had no effect on homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, or burglary. Larceny and motor vehicle thefts, however, seem to have increased moderately after Prop 47, but these results were both sensitive to alternative specifications of our synthetic control group and small enough that placebo testing cannot rule out spuriousness.
ISSN:1745-9133
DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12378