The importance of small units of aggregation: trajectories of crime at addresses in Cincinnati, Ohio, 1998–2012

We describe the temporal and spatial patterns of crime at unique addresses over a 15-year period, 1998-2012, in a medium-sized Midwestern city. Group-based trajectory analysis of police incidents recorded by the Cincinnati Police Department are combined with geographic analysis for the entirecity, w...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Payne, Troy C. (Author) ; Gallagher, Kathleen (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
Published: 2016
In: Criminology, criminal justice, law & society
Year: 2016, Volume: 17, Issue: 1, Pages: 20-36
Online Access: Volltext (kostenfrei)
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520 |a We describe the temporal and spatial patterns of crime at unique addresses over a 15-year period, 1998-2012, in a medium-sized Midwestern city. Group-based trajectory analysis of police incidents recorded by the Cincinnati Police Department are combined with geographic analysis for the entirecity, while also highlighting individual address points in one high-crime neighborhood. We find that six trajectories adequately describe the city-wide data, with the low-stable crime trajectory comprising the majority of the places, while the high-stable crime trajectory is just 2.5% of addresses yet consistently has one-third of crime, which accounts for a disproportionate amount of crime. Similar to previous research at the street-block level, small differences in city-wide trends from 1998-2012 obscure large differences within trajectories. Places with very different trajectories of crime are very often located on the same street segment. Nearly allhigh-crime addresses exist among a cloud of low-crime places. This suggests that characteristics of individual addresses are of importance both to crime theory and crime prevention practice. 
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